|
||||
| |
||||
Lake-Effect Snow in Great Lakes BasinCollaborators: Azar Zarrin, Steve Vavrus, Val Bennington Funding: NOAA CCDD, Michigan DNR, NOAA GLERL Publications: Notaro, M., A. Zarrin, S. Vavrus, and Val Bennington, 2013: Simulation of heavy lake-effect snowstorms across the Vavrus, S., M. Notaro, and A. Zarrin, 2013: The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms across the Great Methods: A historical simulation (1976-2002) of the ICTP RegCM4 regional climate model, coupled to a 1D lake model, is validated against observed lake ice cover and snowfall across the Great Lakes Basin. Through ensemble experiments, the influence of lake ice cover on lake-effect snow is investigated in the model. Furthermore, two of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) global climate models are dynamically downscaled using RegCM4 to project future changes in Great Lakes' ice cover and regional lake-effect snowfall for the mid- and late 21st century. Key finding: RegCM4 can successfully capture spatial and temporal variability in lake ice and snowfall in the Great Lakes Basin. Future projections suggest increases in total precipitation, including total lake-effect precipitation, but with increased rainfall and decreased snowfall. Heavy lake-effect snowstorms may become more frequent around Lake Superior by the mid-21st century, but by the late 21st century, such snowfall extremes will become less abundant across the entire Great Lakes Basin. |
||
 |
Time series of observed and simulated December-May mean Great Lakes' percent ice cover during 1976/77-2001/02 (Notaro et al. 2013). Observations are from the NOAA Great Lakes Ice Atlas, while the simulation is produced using ICTP RegCM4 regional climate model. The time series are correlated at 0.95, so although the regional model exhibits a positive ice cover bias, it is skilled at capturing the year-to-year historic ice variability. | |
