Table of Projected Change in Woody Species

Projected change in the distribution of 170 tree and shrub species in and around the Southwest U.S., based on 14 CMIP3 climate models under the A2 emission scenario. The bioclimatic envelope analysis was performed using Maxent (Philips et al. 2006), and the results are published in a study by Notaro et al. (2012). Observed species distributions were obtained from the North American tree and shrub atlases (Thompson et al. 1999). For each species, the following plots are shown: Observed distribution, the model-mean late 20th century distribution, the future (late 21st century) projected distribution based on two CMIP3 models (PCM1, with a modest warming trend, and IPSL, with a strong warming trend), and the model-mean projected change in distribution (late 21st century - late 20th century; number of models with a projected increase or decrease in area). Keep in mind that these are projected changes in bioclimatic envelope (favorable climatic conditions), not actual distribution.

References

Notaro, M., A. Mauss, and J.W. Williams, 2012: Projected vegetation changes for the American Southwest: Combined dynamical modeling and bioclimatic envelope approach. Ecological Application, in press.

Philips, S.J., R.P. Anderson, and R.E. Schapire, 2006: Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.

Thompson, R.S., K.H. Anderson, and P.J. Bartlein, 1999: Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1650 A&B.

Latin Name	Common Name	Type
Abies concolor	White fir	Evergreen
Abies lasiocarpa	Subalpine fir	Evergreen
Acacia greggii	Catclaw acacia	Deciduous
Acacia roemeriana	Roundflower catclaw	Deciduous
Acacia wrightii	Catclaw acacia	Deciduous
Acer glabrum	Rocky Mountain maple	Deciduous
Acer grandidentatum	Bigtooth maple	Deciduous
Acer negundo	Boxelder	Deciduous
Agave utahensis	Utah agave	Evergreen
Alnus oblongifolia	Arizona alder	Deciduous
Alnus tenuifolia	Thinleaf alder	Deciduous
Amelanchier alnifolia	Saskatoon serviceberry	Deciduous
Amelanchier utahensis	Utah serviceberry	Deciduous
Arbutus arizonica	Arizona madrone	Evergreen
Arbutus texana	Texas madrone	Evergreen
Arctostaphylos pringlei	Pringle manzanita	Evergreen
Artemisia tridentata	Big sagebrush	Evergreen
Betula occidentalis	Water birch	Deciduous
Bumelia lanuginosum	Gum bully	Deciduous
Bursera fagaroides	Fragrant bursera	Deciduous
Bursera microphylla	Elephant tree	Deciduous
Canotia holacantha	Crucifixion thorn	Deciduous
Celtis laevigata	Sugarberry	Deciduous
Celtis occidentalis	Common hackberry	Deciduous
Celtis reticulata	Netleaf hackberry	Deciduous
Cephalanthus occidentalis	Common buttonbush	Deciduous
Cercidium floridum	Blue paloverde	Deciduous
Cercidium microphyllum	Yellow paloverde	Deciduous
Cercis canadensis	Eastern redbud	Deciduous
Cercis occidentalis	Texas redbud	Deciduous
Cercocarpus betuloides	Birchleaf mountain mahogany	Evergreen
Cercocarpus breviflorus	Hairy mountain mahogany	Evergreen
Cercocarpus ledifolius	Curl-leaf mountain mahogany	Evergreen
Cereus giganteus	Saguaro	Evergreen
Chilopsis linearis	Desert willow	Deciduous
Condalia globosa	Bitter snakewood	Evergreen
Cornus drummondii	Roughleaf dogwood	Deciduous
Cornus stolonifera	Western dogwood	Deciduous
Corylus cornuta	Beaked hazelnut	Deciduous
Cowania mexicana	Mexican cliffrose	Evergreen
Crataegus douglasii	Black hawthorn	Deciduous
Crataegus erythropoda	Cerro hawthorn	Deciduous
Crataegus saligna	Willow hawthorn	Deciduous
Crataegus tracyi	Tracy's hawthorn	Deciduous
Dalea spinosa	Smoketree	Deciduous
Diospyros texana	Texas persimmon	Deciduous
Dodonaea viscosa	Florida hopbush	Evergreen
Erythrina flabelliformis	Coralbean	Deciduous
Eysenhardtia polystachya	Tahitian kidneywood	Deciduous
Eysenhardtia texana	Texas kidneywood	Deciduous
Fraxinus anomala	Singleleaf ash	Deciduous
Fraxinus cuspidata	Fragrant ash	Deciduous
Fraxinus pennsylvanica	Green ash	Deciduous
Fraxinus velutina	Velvet ash	Deciduous
Fremontodendron californicum	California flannelbush	Evergreen
Holacantha emoryi	Crucifixion thorn	Deciduous
Juglans major	Arizona walnut	Deciduous
Juglans microcarpa	Little walnut	Deciduous
Juniperus californica	California juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus communis	Common juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus deppeana	Alligator juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus erythrocarpa	Redberry juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus flaccida	Drooping juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus horizontalis	Creeping juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus monosperma	Oneseed juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus osteosperma	Utah juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus pinchotii	Pinchot's juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus scopulorum	Rocky Mountain juniper	Evergreen
Juniperus virginiana	Eastern redcedar	Evergreen
Koeberlinia spinosa	Crown of thorns	Deciduous
Larrea divaricata	Creosote bush	Evergreen
Leucaena retusa	Littleleaf leadtree	Deciduous
Lysiloma microphyllum	Quebracho	Deciduous
Morus microphylla	Texas mulberry	Deciduous
Nolina bigelovii	Bigelow's nolina	Evergreen
Olneya tesota	Desert ironwood	Evergreen
Opuntia fulgida	Jumping cholla	Evergreen
Ostrya knowltonii	Knowlton's hophornbeam	Deciduous
Ostrya virginiana	Hopbornbeam	Deciduous
Picea engelmannii	Engelmann spruce	Evergreen
Picea pungens	Blue spruce	Evergreen
Pinus albicaulis	Whitebark pine	Evergreen
Pinus aristata	Bristlecone pine	Evergreen
Pinus cembroides	Mexican pinyon	Evergreen
Pinus contorta	Lodgepole pine	Evergreen
Pinus dura	Mono Lake lupine	Evergreen
Pinus edulis	Twoneedle pinyon	Evergreen
Pinus engelmannii	Apache pine	Evergreen
Pinus flexilis	Limber pine	Evergreen
Pinus leiophylla	Chihuahuan pine	Evergreen
Pinus longaeva	Great Basin bristlecone pine	Evergreen
Pinus monophylla	Singleleaf pinyon	Evergreen
Pinus ponderosa	Ponderosa pine	Evergreen
Pinus strobiformis	Southwestern white pine	Evergreen
Platanus wrightii	Arizona sycamore	Deciduous
Populus angustifolia	Narrowleaf cottonwood	Deciduous
Populus arizonica	Fremont cottonwood	Deciduous
Populus balsamifera	Balsam poplar	Deciduous
Populus deltoides	Eastern cottonwood	Deciduous
Populus fremontii	Fremont cottonwood	Deciduous
Populus tremuloides	Quaking aspen	Deciduous
Populus trichocarpa	Black cottonwood	Deciduous
Prosopis juliflora	Mesquite	Evergreen
Prosopis pubescens	Screwbean mesquite	Deciduous
Prunus americana	American plum	Deciduous
Prunus emarginata	Bitter cherry	Deciduous
Prunus fremontii	Desert apricot	Deciduous
Prunus pensylvanica	Pin cherry	Deciduous
Prunus serotina	Black cherry	Deciduous
Prunus virginiana	Chokecherry	Deciduous
Pseudotsuga menziesii	Douglas-fir	Evergreen
Ptelea trifoliata	Common hoptree	Deciduous
Quercus arizonica	Arizona white oak	Evergreen
Quercus chrysolepis	Canyon live oak	Evergreen
Quercus dunnii	Palmer oak	Evergreen
Quercus emoryi	Emory oak	Evergreen
Quercus gambelii	Gambel oak	Deciduous
Quercus gravesii	Chisos red oak	Deciduous
Quercus grisea	Gray oak	Deciduous
Quercus havardii	Havard oak	Deciduous
Quercus hypoleucoides	Silverleaf oak	Evergreen
Quercus mohriana	Mohr oak	Evergreen
Quercus muehlenbergii	Chinkapin oak	Deciduous
Quercus oblongifolia	Mexican blue oak	Evergreen
Quercus pungens	Pungent oak	Evergreen
Quercus rugosa	Netleaf oak	Evergreen
Quercus toumeyi	Toumey oak	Evergreen
Quercus turbinella	Sonoran scrub oak	Evergreen
Rhamnus betulifolia	Beechleaf frangula	Deciduous
Rhamnus californica	California buckthorn	Evergreen
Rhamnus crocea	Redberry buckthorn	Evergreen
Rhus choriophylla	Evergreen sumac	Evergreen
Rhus glabra	Smooth sumac	Deciduous
Rhus lanceolata	Prairie sumac	Evergreen
Rhus microphylla	Littleleaf sumac	Deciduous
Rhus ovata	Sugar sumac	Evergreen
Robinia neomexicana	New Mexico locust	Deciduous
Salix amygdaloides	Peachleaf willow	Deciduous
Salix bebbiana	Bebb willow	Deciduous
Salix bonplandiana	Bonpland willow	Deciduous
Salix exigua	Narrowleaf willow	Deciduous
Salix geyeriana	Geyer willow	Deciduous
Salix laevigata	Red willow	Deciduous
Salix lasiandra	Pacific willow	Deciduous
Salix lasiolepis	Arroyo willow	Deciduous
Salix nigra	Black willow	Deciduous
Salix petiolaris	Meadow willow	Deciduous
Salix scouleriana	Scouler's willow	Deciduous
Salix taxifolia	Yewleaf willow	Deciduous
Sambucus canadensis	American black elderberry	Deciduous
Sambucus glauca	Blue elderberry	Deciduous
Sambucus melanocarpa	Rocky Mountain elder	Deciduous
Sambucus mexicana	American black elderberry	Deciduous
Sapindus drummondii	Western soapberry	Deciduous
Sapium biloculare	Arrow poision plant	Deciduous
Shepherdia argentea	Silver buffaloberry	Deciduous
Sophora secundiflora	Mescal bean	Evergreen
Sorbus scopulina	Greene's mountain ash	Deciduous
Ulmus americana	American elm	Deciduous
Ulmus rubra	Slippery elm	Deciduous
Ungnadia speciosa	Mexican buckeye	Deciduous
Vauquelinia californica	Arizona rosewood	Evergreen
Yucca brevifolia	Joshua tree	Evergreen
Yucca carnerosana	Eve's needle	Evergreen
Yucca elata	Soaptree yucca	Evergreen
Yucca faxoniana	Eve's needle	Evergreen
Yucca mohavensis	Mojave yucca	Evergreen
Yucca schottii	Schott's yucca	Evergreen
Yucca torreyi	Torrey's yucca	Evergreen
Zanthoxylum hirsutum	Texas Hercules' club	Deciduous